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lynk2510




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Join date : 2011-02-17

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PostSubject: special circumstances range    special circumstances range  EmptyAugust 10th 2011, 5:02 am

When ensemble spread is small and the forecast solutions are consistent within multiple model runs, forecasters perceive more confidence in the ensemble mean, and the forecast in general.[67] Despite this perception, a spread-skill relationship is often weak or not found, as spread-error correlations are normally less than 0.6, and only under special circumstances range between 0.6–0.7.[69] The relationship between ensemble spread and forecast skill varies substantially depending on such factors as the forecast model and the region for which the forecast is made.
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